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Carina Gubin vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
P. Haraszkiewicz 59'
3/28/2026III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 24Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Carina Gubin45%
×Draw25%
Pawłowice Śląskie30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.58
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.25

Carina Gubin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 102 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
70%
Carina Gubin or Pawłowice Śląskie
75%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
55%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
23%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
79%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
47%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
21%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
71%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
36%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
60%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
45%
level
25%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
30%

Carina Gubin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
P. Haraszkiewicz
Carina
Pawłowice
G. Kopernicki
Manager: G. Kopernicki
G. Lukasik
Manager: G. Lukasik

III Liga - Group 3: Carina Gubin 1–0 Pawłowice Śląskie

Carina Gubin beat Pawłowice Śląskie 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 28, 2026.

Goals: P. Haraszkiewicz (59').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.