Cariari Pococi 1–2 Limón Black Star: Result & Stats

Cariari Pococi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Limón Black Star

3/31/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 17Polideportivo de Cariarí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cariari Pococi39%

×Draw25%

Limón Black Star35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cariari PocociExpected goals in this matchLimón Black Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.36

Cariari Pococi

1.45

Limón Black Star

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 36 away

1.68

creates per match

1.33

1.40

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Cariari Pococi

1.68

Limón Black Star

1.33

allows per match

Cariari Pococi

1.40

Limón Black Star

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Limón Black Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw

65%

Cariari Pococi or Limón Black Star

75%

Draw or Limón Black Star

61%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

19%

Limón Black Star wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

77%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

42%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

18%

Limón Black Star 1+ goals

74%

Limón Black Star 2+ goals

39%

Limón Black Star 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

53%

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.45

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more

39%

level

25%

Limón Black Star scores more

35%

Cariari Pococi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff