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Cariari Pococi vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Antioquia
Antioquia
9/18/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 10Estadio Comunal Bernardo Veach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cariari Pococi50%
×Draw23%
Antioquia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.81
Antioquia
1.28

Cariari Pococi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
73%
Cariari Pococi or Antioquia
77%
Draw or Antioquia
50%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
27%
Antioquia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
84%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
54%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
27%
Antioquia 1+ goals
72%
Antioquia 2+ goals
37%
Antioquia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
65%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81

Antioquia attack 1.16 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
50%
level
23%
Antioquia scores more
27%

Cariari Pococi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Cariari Pococi 2–0 Antioquia

Cariari Pococi beat Antioquia 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Comunal Bernardo Veach in Cariari.