Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cardiff vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
18:45
Stoke City
Stoke City
9/8/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Cardiff City Stadium
44%
Cardiff
model favours
44%29%27%

Cardiff and Stoke City have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cardiff44%
×Draw29%
Stoke City27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.25
Stoke City
0.91

Cardiff creates 37% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 26 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.16
Stoke City
0.73

allows per match

Cardiff
1.08
Stoke City
1.35

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
73%
Cardiff or Stoke City
71%
Draw or Stoke City
56%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
20%
Stoke City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
71%
Cardiff 2+ goals
36%
Cardiff 3+ goals
13%
Stoke City 1+ goals
60%
Stoke City 2+ goals
23%
Stoke City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
62%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.16 + Stoke City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stoke City attack 0.73 + Cardiff defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cardiff scores more
44%
level
29%
Stoke City scores more
27%

Cardiff at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
City
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff face Stoke City (Championship)

Championship returns with Cardiff hosting Stoke City. Match starts September 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cardiff host Stoke City at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.