Cardiff 1–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stoke City

S. Kaba 29'

J. Laurent 16'

4/22/2023

Championship · Round 44Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Cardiff39%

×Draw27%

Stoke City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.22

Cardiff

1.33

Stoke City

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 54 away

1.05

creates per match

1.07

1.37

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cardiff

1.05

Stoke City

1.07

allows per match

Cardiff

1.37

Stoke City

1.60

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par

Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

66%

Cardiff or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

61%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

18%

Stoke City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

74%

Cardiff 2+ goals

38%

Cardiff 3+ goals

15%

Stoke City 1+ goals

70%

Stoke City 2+ goals

34%

Stoke City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

54%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Stoke City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stoke City attack 1.07 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cardiff scores more

39%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

34%

Cardiff at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

M. Fox

Stoke City · D

7.7

Match Events

16'

J. Laurent↳ W. Smallbone

29'

33'

42'

44'

59'

J. Philogene← J. Ralls

59'

M. Harris← K. Etete

66'

D. Sterling← K. Hoever

67'

J. Alnwick← R. Allsop

74'

N. Powell← D. Gayle

84'

L. Baker← J. Laurent

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffStoke

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots6

6Corners4

3Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots6

4On Target1

2Off Target2

1Blocked3

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box0

Passing

35%Possession65%

325Total Passes610

227Accurate Passes493

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

3Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4