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Cardiff vs Plymouth — League One 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
I. Davies 90'
R. Colwill 50'
C. Willock 44'
R. Wintle 41'
8/30/2025League OneLeague One · Round 6Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cardiff43%
×Draw24%
Plymouth33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.67
Plymouth
1.43

Cardiff creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cardiff
2.19
Plymouth
2.05

allows per match

Cardiff
0.81
Plymouth
1.16

finishing

Cardiff+0.31scores more
Plymouth-0.49scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
67%
Cardiff or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
57%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
22%
Plymouth wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
81%
Cardiff 2+ goals
50%
Cardiff 3+ goals
23%
Plymouth 1+ goals
76%
Plymouth 2+ goals
42%
Plymouth 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
57%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.81 · 8 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 2.19 + Plymouth defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.67

Plymouth attack 2.05 + Cardiff defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cardiff scores more
43%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
33%

Cardiff at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
R. WintleCardiffCardiff · M
8.6

Match Events

21'
Matthew Sorinola
34'
Joel Colwill
41'
R. Wintle↳ R. Colwill
42'
Rubin Colwill
44'
C. Willock↳ C. Ashford
50'
R. Colwill↳ C. Willock
52'
A. Pepple← A. Benarous
64'
F. Issaka← M. Sorinola
67'
I. Davies← C. Willock
67'
T. Nyakuhwa← C. Ashford
67'
C. Robinson← Y. Salech
71'
J. Edwards← A. Mitchell
72'
J. Hatch← C. Watts
87'
P. Ng← J. Colwill
90'
Ronan Kpakio
90'
I. Davies↳ R. Wintle

Possession

55%Cardiff

Shots

16Cardiff

Pass accuracy

52%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffPlymouth
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots8
5Corners5
14Fouls6
Shots
16Total Shots8
10On Target3
5Off Target3
1Blocked2
13Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
458Total Passes375
390Accurate Passes289
85%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Plymouth

Cardiff beat Plymouth 4-0 in League One on August 30, 2025.

Goals: R. Wintle (41'), C. Willock (44'), R. Colwill (50'), I. Davies (90').

Cardiff controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.