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Cardiff vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
15:00
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
1/16/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Cardiff City Stadium
Big match
58%
Middlesbrough
model favours
22%21%58%

Middlesbrough have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cardiff22%
×Draw21%
Middlesbrough58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.25
Middlesbrough
2.15

Middlesbrough creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 33 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.20
Middlesbrough
1.70

allows per match

Cardiff
2.60
Middlesbrough
1.30

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
42%
Cardiff or Middlesbrough
79%
Draw or Middlesbrough
78%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
9%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
71%
Cardiff 2+ goals
36%
Cardiff 3+ goals
13%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
88%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
63%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
27%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.20 + Middlesbrough defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Middlesbrough attack 1.70 + Cardiff defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cardiff scores more
22%
level
21%
Middlesbrough scores more
58%

Middlesbrough at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Middlesbrough
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cardiff host Middlesbrough

January 16, 2027: Cardiff take on Middlesbrough in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cardiff host Middlesbrough at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.