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Cardiff vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Leeds
Leeds
1/13/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cardiff29%
×Draw26%
Leeds45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.09
Leeds
1.44

Leeds creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.12
Leeds
1.63

allows per match

Cardiff
1.25
Leeds
1.06

finishing

Cardiff+0.09on par
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
55%
Cardiff or Leeds
74%
Draw or Leeds
71%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
11%
Leeds wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
66%
Cardiff 2+ goals
30%
Cardiff 3+ goals
10%
Leeds 1+ goals
76%
Leeds 2+ goals
42%
Leeds 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
39%
Leeds (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 33 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.12 + Leeds defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Leeds attack 1.63 + Cardiff defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cardiff scores more
29%
level
26%
Leeds scores more
45%

Leeds at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff 0 – 3 Leeds

Leeds beat Cardiff 3-0 in Championship on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.