Cardiff 0–3 Everton: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Everton

D. Calvert-Lewin 90+3'

G. Sigurðsson 66', 41'

2/26/2019

Premier League · Round 28Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cardiff33%

×Draw25%

Everton42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.53

Cardiff

1.33

Everton

1.53

Everton creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 200 away

1.11

creates per match

1.06

2.00

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Cardiff

1.11

Everton

1.06

allows per match

Cardiff

2.00

Everton

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

Everton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

58%

Cardiff or Everton

75%

Draw or Everton

67%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

15%

Everton wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

74%

Cardiff 2+ goals

38%

Cardiff 3+ goals

15%

Everton 1+ goals

78%

Everton 2+ goals

45%

Everton 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

44%

Everton (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Everton away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.54 · 200 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.11 + Everton defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Everton attack 1.06 + Cardiff defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cardiff scores more

33%

level

25%

Everton scores more

42%

Everton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Sigurðsson

Everton · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

Leandro Bacuna

14'

Sean Morrison

41'

G. Sigurðsson↳ S. Coleman

50'

Lucas Digne

61'

Bernard← Richarlison

66'

G. Sigurðsson

68'

Josh Murphy← J. Hoilett

69'

C. Paterson← N. Mendez-Laing

81'

Josh Murphy

81'

D. Ward← K. Zohorè

82'

A. Lookman← T. Walcott

88'

André Gomes← G. Sigurðsson

90+3'

D. Calvert-Lewin↳ I. Gueye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffEverton

Overview

32%Possession68%

6Total Shots12

3Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots12

0On Target4

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

32%Possession68%

257Total Passes534

145Accurate Passes425

56%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1