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Cardiff vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
V. Gyökeres 34'
10/15/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Cardiff30%
×Draw26%
Coventry43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.14
Coventry
1.42

Coventry creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.05
Coventry
1.47

allows per match

Cardiff
1.37
Coventry
1.23

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par
Coventry+0.08on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
57%
Cardiff or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
70%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
12%
Coventry wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%
Coventry 1+ goals
76%
Coventry 2+ goals
41%
Coventry 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
41%
Coventry (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Coventry attack 1.47 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cardiff scores more
30%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
43%

Coventry at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
K. McFadzeanCoventryCoventry · D
7.9

Match Events

23'
M. Rose← C. Doyle
34'
V. Gyökeres
40'
Viktor Gyökeres
48'
Ben Sheaf
55'
Mark Harris
55'
Jonathan Panzo
64'
J. Simpson← V. Campbell
64'
R. Sawyers← A. Rinomhota
71'
S. Ojo← N. Nkounkou
75'
M. Waghorn← M. Godden
75'
K. Palmer← J. Allen
81'
J. Philogene← C. ODowda
81'
K. Etete← M. Harris
90+5'
Jake Bidwell

Possession

53%Cardiff

Shots

15Cardiff

Pass accuracy

50%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffCoventry
Overview
53%Possession47%
15Total Shots11
12Corners7
6Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots11
1On Target4
6Off Target5
8Blocked2
10Inside Box9
5Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
380Total Passes340
268Accurate Passes243
71%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
3Offsides6

Championship: Cardiff 0–1 Coventry

Coventry beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on October 15, 2022.

Goals: V. Gyökeres (34').

Cardiff controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.