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Cardiff vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
2/15/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Cardiff31%
×Draw27%
Coventry42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.13
Coventry
1.35

Coventry creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.12
Coventry
1.45

allows per match

Cardiff
1.25
Coventry
1.14

finishing

Cardiff+0.09on par
Coventry-0.08on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
58%
Cardiff or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
69%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
13%
Coventry wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
31%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%
Coventry 1+ goals
74%
Coventry 2+ goals
39%
Coventry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
43%
Coventry (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 33 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.14 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.12 + Coventry defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Coventry attack 1.45 + Cardiff defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cardiff scores more
31%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
42%

Coventry at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Coventry

Cardiff beat Coventry 2-0 in Championship on February 15, 2022.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.