Cardiff 4–1 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

O. Kellyman 87'

O. Tanner 61'

P. Ng 58'

J. Colwill 22'

M. Stevens 45'

2/17/2026

League One · Round 33Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cardiff58%

×Draw22%

AFC Wimbledon20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.06

Cardiff

1.96

AFC Wimbledon

1.06

Cardiff creates 85% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

2.17

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Cardiff

2.17

AFC Wimbledon

1.13

allows per match

Cardiff

1.00

AFC Wimbledon

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

80%

Cardiff or AFC Wimbledon

78%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

42%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

34%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

86%

Cardiff 2+ goals

58%

Cardiff 3+ goals

31%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

65%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

74%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 2.17 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.96

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.13 + Cardiff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cardiff scores more

58%

level

22%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

20%

Cardiff at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

P. Ng

Cardiff · D

8.5

Match Events

22'

J. Colwill↳ A. Robertson

37'

M. Stevens← O. Bugiel

45'

M. Stevens↳ S. Seddon

50'

Ryan Johnson

58'

P. Ng↳ O. Tanner

61'

O. Tanner↳ P. Ng

65'

D. Turnbull← A. Robertson

66'

R. Colwill← J. Colwill

66'

C. Ashford← C. Willock

74'

C. Robinson← O. Tanner

74'

J. Reeves← M. Hippolyte

74'

A. Hackford← M. Browne

74'

P. Bauer← C. Maycock

83'

Jake Reeves

86'

Z. Nelson← A. Smith

87'

O. Kellyman↳ C. Robinson

90+1'

C. Scanlon← O. Kellyman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffAFC

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots17

4Corners5

8Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots17

8On Target6

4Off Target5

4Blocked6

14Inside Box9

2Outside Box8

Passing

61%Possession39%

502Total Passes310

424Accurate Passes236

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1