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Cardiff MET vs Brackley Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brackley Town
Brackley Town
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cardiff MET71%
×Draw22%
Brackley Town7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff MET
1.67
Brackley Town
0.33

Cardiff MET creates 406% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cardiff MET
2.33
Brackley Town
0.33

allows per match

Cardiff MET
0.33
Brackley Town
1.00

finishing

Cardiff MET+0.00on par
Brackley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff MET ↓

Brackley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cardiff MET or draw
93%
Cardiff MET or Brackley Town
78%
Draw or Brackley Town
29%

Winning margin

Cardiff MET wins by 2+
42%
Brackley Town wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Cardiff MET 1+ goals
81%
Cardiff MET 2+ goals
50%
Cardiff MET 3+ goals
23%
Brackley Town 1+ goals
28%
Brackley Town 2+ goals
4%
Brackley Town 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Cardiff MET (draw refunded)
91%
Brackley Town (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff MET at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Brackley Town away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff MET attack 2.33 + Brackley Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Brackley Town attack 0.33 + Cardiff MET defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Cardiff MET scores more
71%
level
22%
Brackley Town scores more
7%

Cardiff MET at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Cardiff MET will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Cardiff
Brackley
Ryan Jenkins
Manager: Ryan Jenkins
Gareth Dean
Manager: Gareth Dean

Friendlies Clubs: Cardiff MET 0–0 Brackley Town

Cardiff MET and Brackley Town drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.