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Cardiff City W vs Swindon Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Cardiff City W
Cardiff City W
FT
4 – 1
Swindon Town W
Swindon Town W
11/3/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundNewport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cardiff City W57%
×Draw18%
Swindon Town W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff City W
2.85
Swindon Town W
1.87

Cardiff City W creates 52% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cardiff City W
3.00
Swindon Town W
2.86

allows per match

Cardiff City W
0.88
Swindon Town W
2.71

finishing

Cardiff City W+0.00on par
Swindon Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff City W ↓

Swindon Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Cardiff City W or draw
75%
Cardiff City W or Swindon Town W
82%
Draw or Swindon Town W
43%

Winning margin

Cardiff City W wins by 2+
38%
Swindon Town W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cardiff City W 1+ goals
94%
Cardiff City W 2+ goals
77%
Cardiff City W 3+ goals
53%
Swindon Town W 1+ goals
85%
Swindon Town W 2+ goals
56%
Swindon Town W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Cardiff City W (draw refunded)
70%
Swindon Town W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff City W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Swindon Town W away — creates 2.86, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff City W attack 3.00 + Swindon Town W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.85

Swindon Town W attack 2.86 + Cardiff City W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cardiff City W scores more
57%
level
18%
Swindon Town W scores more
25%

Cardiff City W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cardiff City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cardiff City W vs Swindon Town W

Cardiff City W beat Swindon Town W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Newport Stadium in Casnewydd.