Cardiff City W 1–2 Southampton W: Result & Stats

Cardiff City W

1 – 2

Southampton W

1/5/2020

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundCCB Centre for Sporting Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cardiff City W44%

×Draw22%

Southampton W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cardiff City WExpected goals in this matchSouthampton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.72

Cardiff City W

1.95

Southampton W

1.72

Cardiff City W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

3.00

creates per match

2.56

0.88

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Cardiff City W

3.00

Southampton W

2.56

allows per match

Cardiff City W

0.88

Southampton W

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff City W+0.00on par

Southampton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff City W ↓

Southampton W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Cardiff City W or draw

65%

Cardiff City W or Southampton W

78%

Draw or Southampton W

56%

Winning margin

Cardiff City W wins by 2+

24%

Southampton W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cardiff City W 1+ goals

86%

Cardiff City W 2+ goals

58%

Cardiff City W 3+ goals

31%

Southampton W 1+ goals

82%

Southampton W 2+ goals

51%

Southampton W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Cardiff City W (draw refunded)

56%

Southampton W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cardiff City W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Southampton W away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff City W attack 3.00 + Southampton W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.95

Southampton W attack 2.56 + Cardiff City W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cardiff City W scores more

44%

level

22%

Southampton W scores more

35%

Cardiff City W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cardiff City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Cardiff City W 1–2 Southampton W

Southampton W beat Cardiff City W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at CCB Centre for Sporting Excellence in Ystrad Mynach, Caerphilly.

Cardiff City W vs Southampton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Cardiff City W 1–2 Southampton W