Cardiff City W 0–3 Cheltenham Town W

Cardiff City W

0 – 3

Cheltenham Town W

11/12/2023

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundDragon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cardiff City W45%

×Draw22%

Cheltenham Town W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cardiff City WExpected goals in this matchCheltenham Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.69

Cardiff City W

2.00

Cheltenham Town W

1.69

Cardiff City W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

2.50

0.88

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cardiff City W

3.00

Cheltenham Town W

2.50

allows per match

Cardiff City W

0.88

Cheltenham Town W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff City W+0.00on par

Cheltenham Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff City W ↓

Cheltenham Town W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Cardiff City W or draw

67%

Cardiff City W or Cheltenham Town W

78%

Draw or Cheltenham Town W

55%

Winning margin

Cardiff City W wins by 2+

25%

Cheltenham Town W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cardiff City W 1+ goals

86%

Cardiff City W 2+ goals

59%

Cardiff City W 3+ goals

32%

Cheltenham Town W 1+ goals

82%

Cheltenham Town W 2+ goals

50%

Cheltenham Town W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Cardiff City W (draw refunded)

58%

Cheltenham Town W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cardiff City W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Cheltenham Town W away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff City W attack 3.00 + Cheltenham Town W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cheltenham Town W attack 2.50 + Cardiff City W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cardiff City W scores more

45%

level

22%

Cheltenham Town W scores more

33%

Cardiff City W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cardiff City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff