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Cardassar vs Santanyí — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Cardassar
Cardassar
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Santanyí
Santanyí
2/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 21Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cardassar37%
×Draw26%
Santanyí36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardassar
1.32
Santanyí
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 113 away

creates per match

Cardassar
1.22
Santanyí
1.17

allows per match

Cardassar
1.44
Santanyí
1.42

finishing

Cardassar+0.00on par
Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardassar ↓

Santanyí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cardassar or draw
64%
Cardassar or Santanyí
74%
Draw or Santanyí
63%

Winning margin

Cardassar wins by 2+
17%
Santanyí wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cardassar 1+ goals
73%
Cardassar 2+ goals
38%
Cardassar 3+ goals
15%
Santanyí 1+ goals
73%
Santanyí 2+ goals
37%
Santanyí 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cardassar (draw refunded)
51%
Santanyí (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardassar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardassar attack 1.22 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Cardassar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardassar scores more
37%
level
26%
Santanyí scores more
36%

Cardassar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cardassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cardassar vs Santanyí

Santanyí beat Cardassar 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar in Sant Llorenç des Cardassar.