Cardassar 0–4 Mallorca II: Result & Stats

Cardassar

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Mallorca II

9/7/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 1Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cardassar21%

×Draw24%

Mallorca II54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardassarExpected goals in this matchMallorca II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.70

Cardassar

0.97

Mallorca II

1.70

Mallorca II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 80 away

1.22

creates per match

1.96

1.44

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Cardassar

1.22

Mallorca II

1.96

allows per match

Cardassar

1.44

Mallorca II

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardassar+0.00on par

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardassar ↓

Mallorca II →

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cardassar or draw

46%

Cardassar or Mallorca II

76%

Draw or Mallorca II

79%

Winning margin

Cardassar wins by 2+

Mallorca II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Cardassar 1+ goals

62%

Cardassar 2+ goals

25%

Cardassar 3+ goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

82%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

51%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Cardassar (draw refunded)

28%

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cardassar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cardassar attack 1.22 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.97

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Cardassar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cardassar scores more

21%

level

24%

Mallorca II scores more

54%

Mallorca II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff