Cardassar 2–4 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Cardassar

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Isaac Calvo 43' (pen)

Colo 17' (OG)

Iván Sales 86'

Juan Carlos 83', 71'

Colo 25'

3/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 19Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cardassar20%

×Draw24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardassarExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.72

Cardassar

0.91

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.72

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 89% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 44 away

1.22

creates per match

2.00

1.44

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Cardassar

1.22

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Cardassar

1.44

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardassar+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardassar ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cardassar or draw

44%

Cardassar or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

76%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

80%

Winning margin

Cardassar wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Cardassar 1+ goals

60%

Cardassar 2+ goals

23%

Cardassar 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

82%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

51%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Cardassar (draw refunded)

26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cardassar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cardassar attack 1.22 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.91

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Cardassar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cardassar scores more

20%

level

24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

56%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

ColoOwn goal

25'

Colo

43'

Isaac CalvoPenalty

51'

Jaume Fernández← Riera

56'

Sergi Febrer← Jaume Alzamora

67'

Iván Sales← Gorka Ramón

71'

Juan Carlos

80'

Jordi Ramis← Isaac Calvo

80'

Joan Sanso← Joan Tauler

80'

Bernat← Gabriel Roig

83'

Juan Carlos

86'

Iván Sales

89'

Onofre Riera← Juan Carlos

90+2'

E. Franco← Dailos Tejera

Cardassar

Ibiza

▼

⚽🥅

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Calvo

Manager: Miguel Àngel

51'▲Jaume Fernández←▼Riera

56'▲Sergi Febrer←▼Jaume Alzamora

80'▲Jordi Ramis←▼Isaac Calvo

80'▲Joan Sanso←▼Joan Tauler

80'▲Bernat←▼Gabriel Roig

Cardassar substitutes

FernándezFebrerRamisSansoBernat

Manager: Alberto Gallego

67'▲Iván Sales←▼Gorka Ramón

89'▲Onofre Riera←▼Juan Carlos

90+2'▲E. Franco←▼Dailos Tejera

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

SalesRieraFranco

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Cardassar 2–4 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Cardassar 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 14, 2021.

Goals: Colo (17' o.g., 25'), Isaac Calvo (43' pen), Juan Carlos (71', 83'), Iván Sales (86').

The match was played at Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar in Sant Llorenç des Cardassar.

Cardassar vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Cardassar 2–4 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas