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Cardassar vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Cardassar
Cardassar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 5Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cardassar45%
×Draw25%
Ferriolense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardassar
1.59
Ferriolense
1.24

Cardassar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cardassar
1.22
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Cardassar
1.44
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Cardassar+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardassar ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cardassar or draw
70%
Cardassar or Ferriolense
75%
Draw or Ferriolense
55%

Winning margin

Cardassar wins by 2+
23%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cardassar 1+ goals
80%
Cardassar 2+ goals
47%
Cardassar 3+ goals
21%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
71%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
35%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cardassar (draw refunded)
60%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardassar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardassar attack 1.22 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Cardassar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cardassar scores more
45%
level
25%
Ferriolense scores more
30%

Cardassar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cardassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Cardassar 1–1 Ferriolense

Cardassar and Ferriolense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar in Sant Llorenç des Cardassar.