Cardassar 3–2 Esporles: Result & Stats

Cardassar

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Esporles

5/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 5Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cardassar54%

×Draw24%

Esporles22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardassarExpected goals in this matchEsporles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.00

Cardassar

1.70

Esporles

1.00

Cardassar creates 70% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

1.22

creates per match

0.57

1.44

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Cardassar

1.22

Esporles

0.57

allows per match

Cardassar

1.44

Esporles

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardassar+0.00on par

Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardassar ↓

Esporles →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cardassar or draw

78%

Cardassar or Esporles

76%

Draw or Esporles

46%

Winning margin

Cardassar wins by 2+

29%

Esporles wins by 2+

Team goals

Cardassar 1+ goals

82%

Cardassar 2+ goals

51%

Cardassar 3+ goals

24%

Esporles 1+ goals

63%

Esporles 2+ goals

26%

Esporles 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cardassar (draw refunded)

71%

Esporles (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cardassar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cardassar attack 1.22 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.70

Esporles attack 0.57 + Cardassar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cardassar scores more

54%

level

24%

Esporles scores more

22%

Cardassar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cardassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff