Carbonia 2–0 Vis Artena: Result & Stats

Carbonia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vis Artena

5/18/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 32Stadio Carlo Zoboli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Carbonia32%

×Draw27%

Vis Artena41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarboniaExpected goals in this matchVis Artena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.33

Carbonia

1.16

Vis Artena

1.33

Vis Artena creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

1.12

creates per match

1.06

1.59

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Carbonia

1.12

Vis Artena

1.06

allows per match

Carbonia

1.59

Vis Artena

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carbonia+0.00on par

Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carbonia ↓

Vis Artena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carbonia or draw

59%

Carbonia or Vis Artena

73%

Draw or Vis Artena

68%

Winning margin

Carbonia wins by 2+

13%

Vis Artena wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Carbonia 1+ goals

69%

Carbonia 2+ goals

32%

Carbonia 3+ goals

11%

Vis Artena 1+ goals

74%

Vis Artena 2+ goals

38%

Vis Artena 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Carbonia (draw refunded)

44%

Vis Artena (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carbonia at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Carbonia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carbonia scores more

32%

level

27%

Vis Artena scores more

41%

Vis Artena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff