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Carbonia vs Torres — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Carbonia
Carbonia
FT
0 – 2
Torres
Torres
11/13/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 9Campo Sportivo Remigio Muntoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Carbonia21%
×Draw26%
Torres52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carbonia
0.85
Torres
1.50

Torres creates 76% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

creates per match

Carbonia
1.12
Torres
1.41

allows per match

Carbonia
1.59
Torres
0.59

finishing

Carbonia+0.00on par
Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carbonia ↓

Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Carbonia or draw
48%
Carbonia or Torres
74%
Draw or Torres
79%

Winning margin

Carbonia wins by 2+
7%
Torres wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Carbonia 1+ goals
57%
Carbonia 2+ goals
21%
Carbonia 3+ goals
5%
Torres 1+ goals
78%
Torres 2+ goals
44%
Torres 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Carbonia (draw refunded)
29%
Torres (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carbonia at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Torres away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Torres defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.85

Torres attack 1.41 + Carbonia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Carbonia scores more
21%
level
26%
Torres scores more
52%

Torres at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Carbonia 0–2 Torres

Torres beat Carbonia 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Remigio Muntoni in Sant'Anna Arresi.