Carbonia 1–1 Real Monterotondo: Result & Stats

Carbonia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Monterotondo

12/8/2021

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Campo Sportivo Remigio Muntoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Carbonia39%

×Draw26%

Real Monterotondo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarboniaExpected goals in this matchReal Monterotondo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.28

Carbonia

1.37

Real Monterotondo

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

1.12

creates per match

0.97

1.59

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Carbonia

1.12

Real Monterotondo

0.97

allows per match

Carbonia

1.59

Real Monterotondo

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carbonia+0.00on par

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carbonia ↓

Real Monterotondo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Carbonia or draw

65%

Carbonia or Real Monterotondo

74%

Draw or Real Monterotondo

61%

Winning margin

Carbonia wins by 2+

18%

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Carbonia 1+ goals

75%

Carbonia 2+ goals

40%

Carbonia 3+ goals

16%

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals

72%

Real Monterotondo 2+ goals

37%

Real Monterotondo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Carbonia (draw refunded)

53%

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carbonia at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Carbonia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carbonia scores more

39%

level

26%

Real Monterotondo scores more

35%

Carbonia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carbonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Carbonia 1–1 Real Monterotondo

Carbonia and Real Monterotondo drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Remigio Muntoni in Sant'Anna Arresi.

Carbonia vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Serie D - Girone G: Carbonia 1–1 Real Monterotondo