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Carbonia vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Carbonia
Carbonia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
4/3/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 27Stadio Carlo Zoboli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Carbonia27%
×Draw25%
Ostia Mare48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carbonia
1.14
Ostia Mare
1.60

Ostia Mare creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

Carbonia
1.12
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Carbonia
1.59
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Carbonia+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carbonia ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Carbonia or draw
52%
Carbonia or Ostia Mare
75%
Draw or Ostia Mare
73%

Winning margin

Carbonia wins by 2+
11%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Carbonia 1+ goals
68%
Carbonia 2+ goals
32%
Carbonia 3+ goals
11%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
80%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
47%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Carbonia (draw refunded)
36%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carbonia at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Carbonia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Carbonia scores more
27%
level
25%
Ostia Mare scores more
48%

Ostia Mare at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Carbonia 0–2 Ostia Mare

Ostia Mare beat Carbonia 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Zoboli in Carbonia.