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Carbonia vs Insieme Formia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Carbonia
Carbonia
FT
3 – 3
Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
10/3/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 3Campo Sportivo Remigio Muntoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Carbonia43%
×Draw24%
Insieme Formia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carbonia
1.59
Insieme Formia
1.33

Carbonia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Carbonia
1.12
Insieme Formia
1.06

allows per match

Carbonia
1.59
Insieme Formia
2.06

finishing

Carbonia+0.00on par
Insieme Formia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carbonia ↓

Insieme Formia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Carbonia or draw
68%
Carbonia or Insieme Formia
76%
Draw or Insieme Formia
57%

Winning margin

Carbonia wins by 2+
22%
Insieme Formia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carbonia 1+ goals
80%
Carbonia 2+ goals
47%
Carbonia 3+ goals
21%
Insieme Formia 1+ goals
74%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
38%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Carbonia (draw refunded)
58%
Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carbonia at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Insieme Formia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Insieme Formia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Insieme Formia attack 1.06 + Carbonia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carbonia scores more
43%
level
24%
Insieme Formia scores more
32%

Carbonia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carbonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carbonia vs Insieme Formia

Carbonia and Insieme Formia drew 3-3 in Serie D - Girone G on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Remigio Muntoni in Sant'Anna Arresi.