Carbonia 0–1 Aprilia: Result & Stats

Carbonia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aprilia

3/9/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 16Stadio Carlo Zoboli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Carbonia34%

×Draw27%

Aprilia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarboniaExpected goals in this matchAprilia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.34

Carbonia

1.21

Aprilia

1.34

Aprilia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

1.12

creates per match

1.09

1.59

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Carbonia

1.12

Aprilia

1.09

allows per match

Carbonia

1.59

Aprilia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carbonia+0.00on par

Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carbonia ↓

Aprilia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carbonia or draw

60%

Carbonia or Aprilia

73%

Draw or Aprilia

66%

Winning margin

Carbonia wins by 2+

14%

Aprilia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Carbonia 1+ goals

70%

Carbonia 2+ goals

34%

Carbonia 3+ goals

12%

Aprilia 1+ goals

74%

Aprilia 2+ goals

39%

Aprilia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Carbonia (draw refunded)

46%

Aprilia (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carbonia at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Carbonia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carbonia scores more

34%

level

27%

Aprilia scores more

40%

Aprilia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aprilia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff