Caravel 1–3 River Plate: Result & Stats

Caravel

FT

1 – 3

River Plate

2/19/2022

Division di Honor · Round 11Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Caravel32%

×Draw20%

River Plate49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaravelExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.35

Caravel

1.88

River Plate

2.35

River Plate creates 25% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

1.43

creates per match

1.95

2.75

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Caravel

1.43

River Plate

1.95

allows per match

Caravel

2.75

River Plate

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caravel+0.00on par

River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravel ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Caravel or draw

51%

Caravel or River Plate

80%

Draw or River Plate

68%

Winning margin

Caravel wins by 2+

16%

River Plate wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Caravel 1+ goals

85%

Caravel 2+ goals

56%

Caravel 3+ goals

29%

River Plate 1+ goals

90%

River Plate 2+ goals

68%

River Plate 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Caravel (draw refunded)

39%

River Plate (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravel attack 1.43 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

River Plate attack 1.95 + Caravel defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Caravel scores more

32%

level

20%

River Plate scores more

49%

River Plate at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff