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Caravel vs NEC Res. — Division di Honor 2019

Caravel
Caravel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NEC Res.
NEC Res.
10/15/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 5Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Caravel36%
×Draw19%
NEC Res.45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caravel
2.37
NEC Res.
2.65

NEC Res. creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Caravel
1.43
NEC Res.
2.54

allows per match

Caravel
2.75
NEC Res.
3.31

finishing

Caravel+0.00on par
NEC Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravel ↓

NEC Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Caravel or draw
55%
Caravel or NEC Res.
81%
Draw or NEC Res.
64%

Winning margin

Caravel wins by 2+
20%
NEC Res. wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Caravel 1+ goals
91%
Caravel 2+ goals
68%
Caravel 3+ goals
42%
NEC Res. 1+ goals
93%
NEC Res. 2+ goals
74%
NEC Res. 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Caravel (draw refunded)
44%
NEC Res. (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

NEC Res. away — creates 2.54, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravel attack 1.43 + NEC Res. defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.37

NEC Res. attack 2.54 + Caravel defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Caravel scores more
36%
level
19%
NEC Res. scores more
45%

NEC Res. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NEC Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caravel vs NEC Res.

NEC Res. beat Caravel 1-0 in Division di Honor on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.