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Caravel vs Brazil Juniors — Division di Honor 2019

Caravel
Caravel
FT
1 – 1
Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
9/25/2019Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 1Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Caravel50%
×Draw19%
Brazil Juniors31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caravel
2.56
Brazil Juniors
2.00

Caravel creates 28% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

creates per match

Caravel
1.43
Brazil Juniors
1.25

allows per match

Caravel
2.75
Brazil Juniors
3.69

finishing

Caravel+0.00on par
Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravel ↓

Brazil Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Caravel or draw
69%
Caravel or Brazil Juniors
81%
Draw or Brazil Juniors
50%

Winning margin

Caravel wins by 2+
31%
Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Caravel 1+ goals
92%
Caravel 2+ goals
72%
Caravel 3+ goals
46%
Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
86%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
59%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Caravel (draw refunded)
62%
Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

Brazil Juniors away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravel attack 1.43 + Brazil Juniors defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.56

Brazil Juniors attack 1.25 + Caravel defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Caravel scores more
50%
level
19%
Brazil Juniors scores more
31%

Caravel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Caravel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Caravel 1–1 Brazil Juniors

Caravel and Brazil Juniors drew 1-1 in Division di Honor on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.