Caravaggio vs Juventus SC — Catarinense - 2 2026
Catarinense - 2 · Round 18
86% of Caravaggio’s matches go over 2.5 goals
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Caravaggio53%
Juventus SC23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Caravaggio creates 67% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Caravaggio ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Caravaggio at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches
Juventus SC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Caravaggio attack 2.11 + Juventus SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.62
Juventus SC attack 0.83 + Caravaggio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Caravaggio at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Caravaggio are unbeaten in 5 straight
- Both teams score in only 15% of Juventus SC’s matches
- 77% of Juventus SC’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
- Juventus SC score first in only 31% of matches
- Top-of-the-table clash — Caravaggio 4 vs Juventus SC 3
- Caravaggio win just 28% against the top half (vs 62% against the bottom)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Caravaggio host Juventus SC on Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Catarinense - 2 2026/2027 season.
Caravaggio vs Juventus SC — Match Preview
Caravaggio face Juventus SC on July 26, 2026 in this Catarinense - 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.