Caravaggio 0–1 Internacional SC: Result & Stats

Caravaggio

FT

0 – 1

Internacional SC

7/31/2022

Catarinense - 2 · Round 9Estádio da Montanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Caravaggio37%

×Draw32%

Internacional SC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaravaggioExpected goals in this matchInternacional SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.90

Caravaggio

1.00

Internacional SC

0.90

Caravaggio creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

0.80

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Caravaggio

0.80

Internacional SC

1.00

allows per match

Caravaggio

0.80

Internacional SC

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Internacional SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Internacional SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw

69%

Caravaggio or Internacional SC

68%

Draw or Internacional SC

63%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+

14%

Internacional SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals

63%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

26%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

8%

Internacional SC 1+ goals

59%

Internacional SC 2+ goals

23%

Internacional SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

54%

Internacional SC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Internacional SC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 0.80 + Internacional SC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Internacional SC attack 1.00 + Caravaggio defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Caravaggio scores more

37%

level

32%

Internacional SC scores more

31%

Caravaggio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff