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Caravaggio vs Guarani de Palhoça — Catarinense - 2 2026

Caravaggio
Caravaggio
FT
3 – 0
Guarani de Palhoça
Guarani de Palhoça
7/2/2022Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 6Estádio da Montanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Caravaggio42%
×Draw31%
Guarani de Palhoça27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caravaggio
1.09
Guarani de Palhoça
0.81

Caravaggio creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

Caravaggio
0.80
Guarani de Palhoça
0.83

allows per match

Caravaggio
0.80
Guarani de Palhoça
1.39

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par
Guarani de Palhoça+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Guarani de Palhoça →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw
73%
Caravaggio or Guarani de Palhoça
69%
Draw or Guarani de Palhoça
58%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+
17%
Guarani de Palhoça wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals
66%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
30%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
10%
Guarani de Palhoça 1+ goals
56%
Guarani de Palhoça 2+ goals
19%
Guarani de Palhoça 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)
61%
Guarani de Palhoça (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Guarani de Palhoça away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 0.80 + Guarani de Palhoça defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Guarani de Palhoça attack 0.83 + Caravaggio defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Caravaggio scores more
42%
level
31%
Guarani de Palhoça scores more
27%

Caravaggio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caravaggio vs Guarani de Palhoça

Caravaggio beat Guarani de Palhoça 3-0 in Catarinense - 2 on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio da Montanha in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.