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Caravaggio vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caravaggio
Caravaggio
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
11/17/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Caravaggio31%
×Draw26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caravaggio
1.17
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.44

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

Caravaggio
1.11
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Caravaggio
1.42
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw
57%
Caravaggio or Dolomiti Bellunesi
74%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
69%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+
12%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals
69%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
33%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
11%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
76%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
42%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)
42%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 1.11 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Caravaggio defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Caravaggio scores more
31%
level
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
43%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caravaggio vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Caravaggio 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Caravaggio.