Caravaggio 0–2 Calvi Noale: Result & Stats

Caravaggio

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Calvi Noale

4/6/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Caravaggio35%

×Draw28%

Calvi Noale38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaravaggioExpected goals in this matchCalvi Noale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.23

Caravaggio

1.17

Calvi Noale

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

1.11

creates per match

1.03

1.42

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Caravaggio

1.11

Calvi Noale

1.03

allows per match

Caravaggio

1.42

Calvi Noale

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Calvi Noale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Calvi Noale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw

62%

Caravaggio or Calvi Noale

72%

Draw or Calvi Noale

65%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+

14%

Calvi Noale wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals

69%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

33%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

11%

Calvi Noale 1+ goals

71%

Calvi Noale 2+ goals

35%

Calvi Noale 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

48%

Calvi Noale (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Calvi Noale away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 1.11 + Calvi Noale defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Calvi Noale attack 1.03 + Caravaggio defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caravaggio scores more

35%

level

28%

Calvi Noale scores more

38%

Calvi Noale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Calvi Noale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff