Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Caravaggio vs Caçador — Catarinense - 2 2026

Caravaggio
Caravaggio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caçador
Caçador
Luiz Fernando Luizao 75' (pen)
G. Lins 55'
6/25/2023Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 5Estádio da Montanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caravaggio77%
×Draw15%
Caçador8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caravaggio
2.55
Caçador
0.68

Caravaggio creates 275% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Caravaggio
2.11
Caçador
0.25

allows per match

Caravaggio
1.11
Caçador
3.00

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par
Caçador+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Caçador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw
92%
Caravaggio or Caçador
85%
Draw or Caçador
23%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+
55%
Caçador wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals
92%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
72%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
46%
Caçador 1+ goals
49%
Caçador 2+ goals
15%
Caçador 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)
91%
Caçador (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Caçador away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 2.11 + Caçador defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

Caçador attack 0.25 + Caravaggio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Caravaggio scores more
77%
level
15%
Caçador scores more
8%

Caravaggio at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
G. Lins
75'
Luiz Fernando LuizaoPenalty
90'
Rafael Favero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caravaggio vs Caçador

Caravaggio and Caçador drew 1-1 in Catarinense - 2 on June 25, 2023.

Goals: G. Lins (55'), Luiz Fernando Luizao (75' pen).

The match was played at Estádio da Montanha in Nova Veneza, Santa Catarina.