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Caravaggio vs Brusaporto — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caravaggio
Caravaggio
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brusaporto
Brusaporto
4/17/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 36Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Caravaggio30%
×Draw30%
Brusaporto41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caravaggio
0.95
Brusaporto
1.16

Brusaporto creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Caravaggio
1.11
Brusaporto
0.89

allows per match

Caravaggio
1.42
Brusaporto
0.79

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par
Brusaporto+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Brusaporto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw
59%
Caravaggio or Brusaporto
70%
Draw or Brusaporto
70%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+
11%
Brusaporto wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals
61%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
25%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
7%
Brusaporto 1+ goals
69%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
32%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)
42%
Brusaporto (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Brusaporto away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 1.11 + Brusaporto defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Brusaporto attack 0.89 + Caravaggio defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Caravaggio scores more
30%
level
30%
Brusaporto scores more
41%

Brusaporto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Caravaggio 0–0 Brusaporto

Caravaggio and Brusaporto drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Caravaggio.