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Carapinheirense vs Sertanense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Carapinheirense
Carapinheirense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sertanense
Sertanense
10/25/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 4Complexo Desportivo São Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carapinheirense41%
×Draw27%
Sertanense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carapinheirense
1.35
Sertanense
1.15

Carapinheirense creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Carapinheirense
1.40
Sertanense
1.20

allows per match

Carapinheirense
1.10
Sertanense
1.30

finishing

Carapinheirense+0.00on par
Sertanense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carapinheirense ↓

Sertanense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Carapinheirense or draw
68%
Carapinheirense or Sertanense
73%
Draw or Sertanense
59%

Winning margin

Carapinheirense wins by 2+
19%
Sertanense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Carapinheirense 1+ goals
74%
Carapinheirense 2+ goals
39%
Carapinheirense 3+ goals
15%
Sertanense 1+ goals
68%
Sertanense 2+ goals
32%
Sertanense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carapinheirense (draw refunded)
56%
Sertanense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carapinheirense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Sertanense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carapinheirense attack 1.40 + Sertanense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sertanense attack 1.20 + Carapinheirense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carapinheirense scores more
41%
level
27%
Sertanense scores more
32%

Carapinheirense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carapinheirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carapinheirense vs Sertanense

Carapinheirense and Sertanense drew 2-2 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo São Pedro in Carapinheira.