Carapinheirense 1–0 Marinhense: Result & Stats

Carapinheirense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marinhense

10/4/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 2Complexo Desportivo São Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carapinheirense42%

×Draw27%

Marinhense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarapinheirenseExpected goals in this matchMarinhense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Carapinheirense

1.33

Marinhense

1.10

Carapinheirense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

1.09

1.10

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Carapinheirense

1.40

Marinhense

1.09

allows per match

Carapinheirense

1.10

Marinhense

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carapinheirense+0.00on par

Marinhense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carapinheirense ↓

Marinhense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carapinheirense or draw

69%

Carapinheirense or Marinhense

73%

Draw or Marinhense

58%

Winning margin

Carapinheirense wins by 2+

19%

Marinhense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carapinheirense 1+ goals

74%

Carapinheirense 2+ goals

38%

Carapinheirense 3+ goals

15%

Marinhense 1+ goals

67%

Marinhense 2+ goals

30%

Marinhense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Carapinheirense (draw refunded)

58%

Marinhense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carapinheirense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Marinhense away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carapinheirense attack 1.40 + Marinhense defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Marinhense attack 1.09 + Carapinheirense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carapinheirense scores more

42%

level

27%

Marinhense scores more

31%

Carapinheirense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carapinheirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff