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Carapinheirense vs GRAP — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Carapinheirense
Carapinheirense
CANC
15:00
GRAP
GRAP
2/28/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 18Complexo Desportivo São Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Carapinheirense63%
×Draw24%
GRAP12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carapinheirense
1.60
GRAP
0.55

Carapinheirense creates 191% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Carapinheirense
1.40
GRAP
0.00

allows per match

Carapinheirense
1.10
GRAP
1.80

finishing

Carapinheirense+0.00on par
GRAP+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carapinheirense ↓

GRAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Carapinheirense or draw
88%
Carapinheirense or GRAP
76%
Draw or GRAP
37%

Winning margin

Carapinheirense wins by 2+
35%
GRAP wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Carapinheirense 1+ goals
80%
Carapinheirense 2+ goals
47%
Carapinheirense 3+ goals
22%
GRAP 1+ goals
42%
GRAP 2+ goals
11%
GRAP 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Carapinheirense (draw refunded)
83%
GRAP (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carapinheirense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

GRAP away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carapinheirense attack 1.40 + GRAP defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

GRAP attack 0.00 + Carapinheirense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Carapinheirense scores more
63%
level
24%
GRAP scores more
12%

Carapinheirense at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Carapinheirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carapinheirense face GRAP (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E)

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E returns with Carapinheirense hosting GRAP. Match starts February 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Carapinheirense host GRAP at Complexo Desportivo São Pedro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.