Caracas FC 3–1 Zulia FC: Result & Stats

Caracas FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zulia FC

5/6/2018

Primera División · Apertura - 15Cocodrilos Sports Park (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Caracas FC50%

×Draw25%

Zulia FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caracas FCExpected goals in this matchZulia FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.04

Caracas FC

1.60

Zulia FC

1.04

Caracas FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 66 away

1.58

creates per match

1.06

1.01

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Caracas FC

1.58

Zulia FC

1.06

allows per match

Caracas FC

1.01

Zulia FC

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Zulia FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw

75%

Caracas FC or Zulia FC

75%

Draw or Zulia FC

50%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+

26%

Zulia FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals

80%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

47%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

22%

Zulia FC 1+ goals

65%

Zulia FC 2+ goals

28%

Zulia FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

67%

Zulia FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Caracas FC scores more

50%

level

25%

Zulia FC scores more

25%

Caracas FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff