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Caracas FC vs Zamora FC — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Zamora FC
Zamora FC
11/9/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Caracas FC47%
×Draw26%
Zamora FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.46
Zamora FC
1.02

Caracas FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 136 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
Zamora FC
1.03

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
Zamora FC
1.34

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Zamora FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Zamora FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
74%
Caracas FC or Zamora FC
74%
Draw or Zamora FC
53%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
23%
Zamora FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
77%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
43%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
18%
Zamora FC 1+ goals
64%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
27%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
64%
Zamora FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Zamora FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Zamora FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zamora FC attack 1.03 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Caracas FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Zamora FC scores more
26%

Caracas FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caracas FC vs Zamora FC

Caracas FC beat Zamora FC 3-1 in Primera División on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.