Caracas FC 1–1 Racing Club: Result & Stats

Caracas FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Club

J. Yendis 46'

T. Perez 42'

4/29/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Caracas FC33%

×Draw29%

Racing Club38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caracas FCExpected goals in this matchRacing Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.18

Caracas FC

1.07

Racing Club

1.18

Racing Club creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.46

0.90

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Caracas FC

1.00

Racing Club

1.46

allows per match

Caracas FC

0.90

Racing Club

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Racing Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Racing Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw

62%

Caracas FC or Racing Club

71%

Draw or Racing Club

67%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+

13%

Racing Club wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals

66%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

29%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

9%

Racing Club 1+ goals

69%

Racing Club 2+ goals

33%

Racing Club 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

46%

Racing Club (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Racing Club away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.00 + Racing Club defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Racing Club attack 1.46 + Caracas FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caracas FC scores more

33%

level

29%

Racing Club scores more

38%

Racing Club at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Yendis

Caracas FC · D

7.6

Match Events

29'

Wilfred Correa

42'

T. Perez↳ B. Rodriguez

46'

Robert Hernandez← C. Vegas

46'

J. Yendis↳ L. Mago

63'

I. Rodriguez← G. Rojas

63'

D. Vergara← T. Conechny

70'

S. Gonzalez← A. Fernandez

70'

M. Zaracho← S. Solari

70'

A. Fernandez← B. Rodriguez

78'

Irving Gudiño

78'

R. Lezama← I. Gudino

80'

D. Pizarro← A. Forneris

85'

M. Vegas← W. Correa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CaracasRacing

Overview

32%Possession68%

7Total Shots24

0.64Expected Goals (xG)2.73

4Corners9

9Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots24

2On Target3

3Off Target16

2Blocked5

4Inside Box10

3Outside Box14

Passing

32%Possession68%

223Total Passes487

138Accurate Passes396

62%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.73Goals Prevented-0.73

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1