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Caracas FC vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
J. Murillo 66'
L. Castro 58'
9/30/2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Caracas FC38%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.26
Independiente Medellin
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
0.85
Independiente Medellin
1.33

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.00
Independiente Medellin
1.67

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
66%
Caracas FC or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
62%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
17%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
72%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
36%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
13%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
69%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
33%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
53%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 0.85 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caracas FC scores more
38%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
34%

Caracas FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
L. AnguloIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · M
8.2

Match Events

2'
Juan Moreno
12'
Sandro Notaroberto
20'
Sandro Notaroberto
20'
Sandro Notaroberto
21'
R. Villanueva← J. Echeverría
46'
Yulián Gómez← J. Moreno
52'
Javier Reina
53'
Carlos Rivero
58'
L. Castro↳ D. Delgado
65'
J. Moreno← A. Contreras
65'
R. Andreutti← L. Flores
66'
J. Murillo
70'
Richard Celis
71'
J. Otero← A. Blanco
71'
S. Guarirapa← R. Hernández
74'
E. Mosquera← D. Delgado
80'
Eduardo Fereira
85'
Y. Díaz← L. Castro
85'
J. Cuesta← J. Reina
88'
M. Cortés← B. Garcés

Possession

31%Caracas

Shots

9Caracas

Pass accuracy

44%Caracas

Statistics

CaracasIndependiente
Overview
31%Possession69%
9Total Shots26
2Corners8
12Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots26
2On Target9
5Off Target11
2Blocked6
3Inside Box11
6Outside Box15
Passing
31%Possession69%
260Total Passes558
177Accurate Passes493
68%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls16
3Yellow Cards2
3Red Cards0
1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Caracas FC 0–2 Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Caracas FC 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on September 30, 2020.

Goals: L. Castro (58'), J. Murillo (66').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (69%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.