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Caracas FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
10/18/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Copa Sudamericana Play-off - 5Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Caracas FC50%
×Draw26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.53
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.99

Caracas FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 64 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
75%
Caracas FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
74%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
50%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
78%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
45%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
20%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
63%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
67%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.53

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Caracas FC scores more
50%
level
26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
25%

Caracas FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Caracas FC 1–0 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Caracas FC beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1-0 in Primera División on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.