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Caracas FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
7/9/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 13Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Caracas FC50%
×Draw25%
Atletico Venezuela25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.56
Atletico Venezuela
1.02

Caracas FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 60 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
75%
Caracas FC or Atletico Venezuela
75%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
50%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
26%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
79%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
46%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
21%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
64%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
27%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
67%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Caracas FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
25%

Caracas FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caracas FC vs Atletico Venezuela

Caracas FC beat Atletico Venezuela 3-1 in Primera División on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.