Carabobo FC 1–0 Monagas SC: Result & Stats

Carabobo FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Monagas SC

3/8/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Carabobo FC48%

×Draw26%

Monagas SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carabobo FCExpected goals in this matchMonagas SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.02

Carabobo FC

1.48

Monagas SC

1.02

Carabobo FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 134 away

1.46

creates per match

1.17

0.88

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Carabobo FC

1.46

Monagas SC

1.17

allows per match

Carabobo FC

0.88

Monagas SC

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

Monagas SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw

74%

Carabobo FC or Monagas SC

74%

Draw or Monagas SC

52%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+

24%

Monagas SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals

77%

Carabobo FC 2+ goals

43%

Carabobo FC 3+ goals

19%

Monagas SC 1+ goals

64%

Monagas SC 2+ goals

27%

Monagas SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)

65%

Monagas SC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 146 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.46 + Monagas SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Monagas SC attack 1.17 + Carabobo FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Carabobo FC scores more

48%

level

26%

Monagas SC scores more

26%

Carabobo FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff