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Carabobo FC vs Metropolitanos FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
3/6/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Carabobo FC61%
×Draw25%
Metropolitanos FC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabobo FC
1.54
Metropolitanos FC
0.58

Carabobo FC creates 166% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Carabobo FC
1.33
Metropolitanos FC
0.50

allows per match

Carabobo FC
0.67
Metropolitanos FC
1.75

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw
86%
Carabobo FC or Metropolitanos FC
75%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
39%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+
33%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals
79%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
45%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
20%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
44%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
12%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
81%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.33 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Metropolitanos FC attack 0.50 + Carabobo FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Carabobo FC scores more
61%
level
25%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
14%

Carabobo FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabobo FC vs Metropolitanos FC

Carabobo FC and Metropolitanos FC drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado in Valencia.