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Carabobo FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
Canc
20:00
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
5/3/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Carabobo FC56%
×Draw22%
Llaneros de Guanare22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabobo FC
1.98
Llaneros de Guanare
1.17

Carabobo FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 20 away

creates per match

Carabobo FC
1.46
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Carabobo FC
0.88
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw
78%
Carabobo FC or Llaneros de Guanare
78%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
44%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+
33%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals
86%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
59%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
31%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
69%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
33%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
72%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 146 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.46 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Carabobo FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Carabobo FC scores more
56%
level
22%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
22%

Carabobo FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carabobo FC face Llaneros de Guanare (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Carabobo FC hosting Llaneros de Guanare. Match starts May 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.