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Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC — Primera División 2018

Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
3/23/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Carabobo FC49%
×Draw26%
Estudiantes de Merida FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabobo FC
1.52
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.03

Carabobo FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 138 away

creates per match

Carabobo FC
1.46
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.19

allows per match

Carabobo FC
0.88
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.57

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw
74%
Carabobo FC or Estudiantes de Merida FC
74%
Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC
51%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+
25%
Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals
78%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
45%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
20%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
64%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
28%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
65%
Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 146 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.46 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Carabobo FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carabobo FC scores more
49%
level
26%
Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
26%

Carabobo FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

Carabobo FC beat Estudiantes de Merida FC 1-0 in Primera División on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado in Valencia.